A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
